Your wishful thinking won't make it so.
It's not wishful thinking. It's reasonable hypothesis supported by results from similar states, polling data, and the demographic makeup of Kentucyk.
Kentucky isn't West Virginia. The university count's much higher, and WV actually makes KY look somewhat diversified. As someone currently living in KY (and a few blocks away from an Obama outpost), I can quite assuredly state he'll do better in KY than he did in WV.
I didn't say it was, but the demographis are SIMILAR. I never said identical. Obama might do a little bit, but probably not much. But we shall see.
The results will be similar in that she'll win, but he's easily going to break 30, if not 40.
Seems like a stretch to me. (40) Thirty possibly, maybe even likely.
Kentucky is richer than West Virginia Kentucky is more educated than West Virginia Kentucky is less white than West Virginia Kentucky is younger than West Virginia
Granted, it's just a comparison -- on the whole, it's still good Clinton margins, but via which exact demographic measure is Kentucky more favorable to her than West Virginia was?
If I had to guess, 30 points seems like a reasonable spread, and it's more in line with the other pollsters: Clinton +32 (SUSA 5/9-11) Clinton +27 (R2k 5/7-9) Clinton +25 (Ras 5/5, 13% undecided)
But, hey, my guess is based on the preponderance of all polling data and the actual demographics breakdown, rather than one ARG poll and wishful thinking. I could be way off.
