A new CNN poll (914 RVs, July 27-29, MOE +/- 3%) shows Barack Obama in solid shape, 7 points ahead of John McCain among registered voters (June numbers in parentheses.)
Obama 51 (50)
McCain 44 (45)
I mean, that looks good to you, right? Obama's above 50%, he's moving up while McCain is moving down and he's gone from within the MOE to outside of it. All good things, right?
Not so fast. Apparently there is much to be concerned about indeed.
Here's CNN headline:
Obama trip abroad doesn't move poll numbers
Oh no! And from their...er...analysis...
...the race for the White House has remained virtually unchanged since late June...
Now, to be fair, I suspect the CNN headline refers specifically to Obama's numbers on "foreign policy issues."
"Did Obama's trip help his standing with the public on foreign policy issues? Not really," CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. "Obama has not picked up any ground against McCain on foreign issues and some 52 percent think McCain would do a better job than Obama on the war in Iraq -- virtually the same number who felt that way in April."
Except that, since way back in April the primary was still in full swing, there is only one issue that they polled both then and now:
Who would better handle Iraq? (April results in parentheses)McCain 52 (53)
Obama 45 (44)
And really, considering we don't know how Obama and McCain polled on the issue prior to his trip, can we really conclude anything vis a vis the impact of his trip on this result? No, of course not. But acknowledging that wouldn't quite fit into their narrative.
It is true that McCain polls better than Obama on issues such as Afghanistan (+10%), terrorism (+15%), the Middle East (+7%) and Iran (+7%) but considering CNN's June poll found that the economy topped voters' concerns with 42% whereas Iraq and terrorism were far back at 24% and 11% respectively, perhaps this isn't as big a concern for Barack as CNN is making it out to be. In fact, perhaps McCain's the one who should be worried, since in July Obama polls better on jobs (+ 19%), economy (+11%), gas prices (+11%) and even taxes (+6%.) Really, which guy would you rather be in this scenario.
I'd respectfully argue that in an attempt to jump on the "what impact did Obama's trip have on his poll numbers" bandwagon, CNN buried the lede. This from the article's 8th paraqgraph:
The poll suggests few of the McCain campaign's criticisms of Obama's trip have stuck, especially charges Obama was presumptuously acting as if he had already won the election and claims he nixed a visit with injured troops because members of the media could not accompany him.
Look at these numbers and then tell me whose candidacy we should really be concerned about:
Is Obama Arrogant?
Yes 37%
No 63%Does Obama Care About Veterans and Troops in Iraq?
Yes 72%
No 27%Is Obama Acting as if He Has Already Won the Election?
Yes 44%
No 56%
But the media wants this thing to be a dead heat and so a dead heat they will make it. I wonder, though, how far Obama needs to be ahead before there's finally some good news for him.
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