As a Hispanic activists who has given both time & so much money to democratic party projects, I am asking myself what so many Latinos, Whites ,Women, Seniors & Asian democrats are privately asking.

We are close to officially nominating a candidate named Barack Obama as our standard bearer for the 2008 Presidential race.

But the Big Question that the Mainstream Media & the so called "Liberal National Democratic Elders" have Avoided asking is.......

How can a politician who has LOST every single Major Ethnic & Religious Group, every Large State in America except for Black  people & his Home State be expected to win the Presidency ?

How ? In a liberal dominated Democratic party culture, being "Politically Correct" is probably the Number 1 Rule that makes us different from our Republican Party counterparts.

While Republicans talk straight regardless of who may get offended or railroaded, we as a party have always practiced the role of "Political Correctness" with the goal of not offending any specific group of people. ( even at the point of hurting our party in the process)

Again, How in the world can we Democrats as a Whole, ( not just the white progressives ) to be confident about our nominee when:

1) He has lost White democratic voters on an avg. of 58%-65%

2. He has lost Latino democratic voters on an avg. of 63%-69%
   
3. He has lost Asian democratic voters on an avg. of %68%-75%
   
4. He has lost Catholic democratic voters on avg. of 64%-69%
   
5. He has lost Jewish democratic voters on avg. of 57%-63%
   
6. He has lost Women democratic voters by 59% - 64%
   
7. He has lost Senior Citizen democratic voters by 65%-70%
   
8. He has lost 7 of the 8, Largest Electoral states

Ladies & Gentlemen, Fellow Democrats, Am I right or am I right?

Any other Candidate, any other candidate would have BEEN bombarded, questioned, criticized for these numbers.

How can a candidate named Barack Obama represent my Democratic Party when he has LOST EVERY SINGLE KEY BLOCK of the MOST RELIABLE DEMOCRATIC blocks of voters in the history of modern politics. Except for his own Race, African-Americans

How can this candidate bring us any confidence at all when he has FAILED to convince every single block of what comprises the modern democratic party.

This is unquestionable a path to a resounding defeat in November.

You do not need to be a Rocket Scientist to figure that out.

All I will say is I accept Obama as the nominee.

As a person of color, I support & understand how my black brothers & sisters feel about Obama.

But I also accept the growing clamor among so many Latino leaders in the West Coast, the Southwest, the Midwest, & the Northeast. So many are already talking about this in Latino talk shows & radio.

IF Obama goes down to lose by a Big Margin in November, Latino Democrats are ready to take over as the NEW DOMINANT MINORITY party within the Democratic party.

By 2010, we will officially be much larger than Black voters within the party.

As Assembly leaders Hector Cardozo of CA, Mark Tirado of NM, Ethel Ramos of AZ have all said last night- The New Latino majority by 2010 &  2012 will be much more Moderate than the Liberal African-American leadership.

The New Latino voters will be much more aligned with Red State moderate democrats than the Jackson's, Obama's & Kennedy's.

It will be a much stronger Latino/ Asian & moderate black coalition than the outdated Ted Kennedy/Jesse Jackson model.

If Obama losses big as many of us fear, all is not lost. The future looks bright for a new democratic party.

People need to learn their lesson the hardway.

We had a winning candidate & we decided to go the PC feel good route.

I am going to make this brief but to the point.

I have been part of the progressive netroots community since the Howard Dean rah rah days. I certainly admire and respect the successful growth & influence of the netroots community.

However, I fear that most prominent leaders of the netroots community in 2008 are about to lead us to another very disappointing loss in November.

What has transpired in the last 90 days has reminded me of all the hoopla of the Ned Lamont failed GE bid & the collapse of the Howard Dean campaign.

These past two painful defeats,  displayed front & back the deep disconnect between mainstream off-line general election voters as compared to the Left wing netroots democratic base.

Today, just like literally 50% of All Democratic voters, I strongly believe that our " prominent net leaders" are about to lead this whole community to another HUGE DISAPPOINTMENT in November.

Only this time, the implications would be Much More & the Defeat Much larger than Lamont or Dean.

There seems to be Only a Very Few bloggers who see what 50% of us see. One of them is no other than MYDD founder Jerome Armstrong. All his past writings in the last 3-4 months have indicated an unbias understanding of what Senator Barack Obama is facing in November.

While people like Markos, Chris Bowers & Matt Stoller are leading the charge for 75% of the entire netroots community who are howling, rooting & going all out on the " Obama 2008 Victory train".

Can the Obama express train take this primary ? Honestly, at this point, yes. I have already accepted that fact.

But can Sen. Obama take the train all the way to the white house?

Personally, as a loyal democrat, a proud Latino- NO!

I will vote for Senator Obama in November.

But just like half of all democrats, I fear & have accepted the very strong probability that Markos, Ted Kennedy, Jesse Jackson is about to lead our party to another VERY PAINFUL November. For those of us over 50 yrs of age, its 1984, 1988 all over again.

I repost this EXCELLENT link by Jerome Armstrong.
This pretty much sums up the reality. Not the Hype by the mainstream media & its netroots ally for 2008. ( Wow, how things have changed)

http://tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=bf 08a566-7c44-446a-aa34-7889b0f24b5a

Let me end by saying that, A Massive defeat by Sen. Barack Obama in November will be 3 steps back in terms of credibility & advancement of the netroots community. Its the 3rd ( and largest) horse that this community would have went all out & lost.

Then people here wonder why mainstream democrats never take us seriously.  Its almost a total disconnect with mainstream general election voters.

P.S. The netroots community slaps Joe Lieberman in the dem primary. The General electorate in Blue Connecticut comes back & Slaps the entire liberal netroots community upside down in the General election. This November is a movie that many of us have seen before. Some just have a stubborn short memory.

As discussed on ABCnews...

McCain democrats are starting to show increasing strenght particularly in the last 30 days. Polls by various organizations led by Gallup, Pew,CNN & WSJ have detected them in all regions of the country.

The big question is.....

When will McCain democrats officially come out in big numbers? When will they start coming out?

Pew Research, Gallup, & WSJ have all done surveys in the last 30 days about these Democrats who have signified their intention to vote for Sen. John McCain in the fall.

The numbers run from these renegades run a shocking  30% to as high as 40% of registered democrats.

Stephenapolous & Rothenberg expect these McCain democrats to start being significantly noticed the minute Sen. Barack Obama knocks off Hillary Clinton. Or when Clinton officially withdraws her candidacy.

Lionel Simmons of Air America together with Stuart Rothenberg both predicted that this may possibly be the largest crossover of voters from one party to another since Ronald Reagan in '80 & '84.

Although white ex-Reagan democrats are leading the organizations  of these independent groups in OH,MO,MI,FL,& NJ-  Latinos have also started launching McCain democrats in NV,CA,FL,NY,NJ,NM.

Personally, I believe that once Obama either secures the nomination by knocking off Clinton in any of the upcoming states or if Clinton decides to drop-out- We will All Witness a very strong public take-off of these groups.

Every pollster has pretty much agreed that if at least 15% of democrats or Republicans swing to the other side in November, that would be more than enough to end this race in November.

Right now, every single major pollster is detecting between 30% to 40% levels.

As a Hispanic, I predict Obama will carry the Hispanic vote by 55% to 45%. ( I'll go with Latino pollster in CA & NV who have been predicting this for months).

Yes,he will carry the democratic vote. But it will be the worse performance of any democrat since reliable Latino presidential polls were first taken in 1988.

In turn, McCain would exceed by a large margin  George W. Bush's numbers among Republicans.

As Jose Jimenez, a tri-state Hispanic Nueva Vision pollster in NY,NJ,CT has pointed out. McCain's strenght with democratic Latinos & democratic blue collar whites are two major reasons why polls show McCain very possibly beating Obama in New York & New Jersey.

Jimenez said, " if Sen. Obama does not carry at least 70% of Puerto Ricans, Dominicans, Cubans, & South american groups in New York & New Jersey, there is no way he can carry these two states. He is weak among white jerseyans & white new yorkers while very strong among african-americans. But without solid 75%+ support from hispanics, McCain will beat him soundly in NY & NJ. McCain has a 77% favorable rating among Hispanics in NY & NJ. The concern for Obama is Puerto Ricans & Dominicans are much more democratic than Mexicans in the West Coast. If he is having a hard time attracting Hispanics in the east coast, he will sure have big problems in more swing hispanics in places like CA,NV,MO & MI. "

Almost forgetten in all the political frenzy are 5 Key Electoral rich block of states.

Its what I call the 5 star states. All 5 combine for 51 Electoral Votes. A number that would be second only to the State of California in terms of electoral votes. ( only winner take call electoral votes really matter in the general election)

What are some of the  common traits of  these unique  5 star states ?

No Democratic President in the last 32 years won the Presidency without carrying ALL 5 states.

All 5 states were all won by the ONLY TWO Democratic Presidents ever elected in the last 32 years.  ( Jimmy Carter won all 5 in 1976, Bill Clinton carried all 5 twice, in '92 & '96)

All 5 states are "socially conservative leaning states"

All 5 states currently have Democratic Moderate DLC Governors

All 5 states have predominantly white majority voters

All 5 states have a combined total of  about 4 million " working class Reagan Democrats" who call these states home.

All 5 states have a good track record of electing Moderate/Conservative Democrats for statewide office.

All 5 states have a good track record of electing Moderate Democrats for National office.
( Carter ( 76) & Bill Clinton (92 & 96)  

All 5 states have a weak record of electing Liberal Democrats for National office.

All 5 states soundly rejected Al Gore & John Kerry . ( especially painful for Gore's
Home state)

What do these 5 Star States have in common today , 2008 ?

All 5 states are what one can declare as  " Hillary Clinton" country.

3 of the 5 states that have voted so far have given Hillary Clinton BIG Double digit victories.

All 5 states show massive support for Hillary Clinton among "Reagan democratic voters"

All 5 states have Democratic Governors who are heavily leaning or expected to vote for Hillary Clinton as a Super Delagate.

All 5 states show various polls having Senator Hillary Clinton being very competitive against Republican John McCain.

Finally,

All 5 states show very poor support for the presumptive nominee, Senator Barack Obama against the Republican McCain in November.

Polls show  massive defeats in these states for the democratic front runner Barack Obama in November.

All 5 states show massive " white Reagan democrats" crossing party lines if Obama is the democratic nominee.

What are these 51 Electoral vote states?

ARKANSAS,  WEST VIRGINIA, TENNESSEE, KENTUCKY, & OHIO.

Let me conclude by saying, IF Barack Obama is the nominee, we can all safely conclude that he will be swept in the entire south including the giant state of Florida plus states like Ohio.

If Hillary Clinton is the nominee, John McCain will have lots of sleepless nights in
these 5 Star states plus Florida.

Obama's appeal & strategy reminds us of the route Gore & Kerry took.

Hillary reminds us of what journey Bill Clinton & Jimmy Carter took to win the White House.

Today, a new poll showed Clinton beating Obama among Kentucky Democrats by 29 points. Last week a new poll in West Virginias showed Clinton defeating Obama by over  20 points.

This is reality folks. Do we want another repeat of defeat after defeat ?

Mondale, Dukakis, Gore & Kerry have ALL TRIED Winning the Presidency without the South. All 4 failed.. ( one could not even carry his home state)

Mondale, Dukakis, Gore & Kerry have all tried winning the Presidency without
Ohio. All 4 failed.

A Liberal African-American from Chicago named Barack Obama will LOSE ALL 5 states by landslide margins in November.

No amount fo speech or policy can change that.

Is that what we really want for the sake of  making "History" in the nomination.

I'm sorry. But winning the General election for the American people is much more important that pacifying  a loud but small segment of "white liberals" and people like Jesse Jackson, Al Sharpton & Deval Patrick.

Disclosure:[ I am a Hispanic activist & a Sen. Hillary Clinton supporter. I will support Sen. Barack Obama in November if he is the nominee. ]

Since the mainstream media is feeding the public perspectives about the Latino vote from an outsiders viewpoint, let me share some key aspects from the Latino viewpoint.

There are three issues that I would like to discuss regarding Latinos & the Gov. Richardson endorsement.

Why is the Latino vote the Most Critical Element that will decide Sen. Obama's faith in November. (Including the "Realistic
Threshold Barrier" that Obama will need to break in November)

What has been the initial reaction by Latino democratic leaders & activists across America to Gov. Bill Richardson's endorsement?

There are two aspects of Gov. Richardson's endorsement that the Obama campaign is hoping to help them.
One, after two straight weeks of the most challenging time in Obama's 2008 campaign, Gov. Richardson helps stop the negative momentum. In addition, the Obama campaign is hoping that this could push other major party leaders to join in & start a parade of critical endorsments. Thus, pressure the Clinton campaign to end its campaign.

Two, the Obama campaign including Mr. Axelrod & two of his highest ranking Latino strategist in the team are fully aware of one fact.

Fact # 1: Sen. Barack Obama cannot win the Presidency without at least carrying a MINIMUM of 70% of the Latino vote in November.

On at least three occasions in February & one in March, Obama's Latino key leaders in the West Coast & the Midwest have explained this in Spanish radio & Spanish language TV.

Here are some key pointers from the Obama camp.

A) They fully expect that Sen. Obama may receive less white votes in November than any of the previous three Democratic presidential candidates. Its only a critical question of by how much less white support he will receive. They have pointed out key white voting percentages:

2004-John Kerry received = 41% of all white voters
2000- Al Gore received = 42% of all white voters
1996-Bill Clinton = 43% of all white voters

Note: According to Latinos strategist from both Obama & Clinton:
Every one white vote in 2008 is equivalent to 4 Latino votes based on estimated population voter percentages:  

With the expected drop in white support, the Latino vote will be the critical key block that is needed to offset the expected loss of white votes in November. They point out key Latino voting percentages :

2004-John Kerry received= 53% of all Latino voters

2000- Al Gore received= 62% of all Latino voters

1996- Bill Clinton= 72% of all Latino voters

Note: For the first time in U.S. History, Latino voters are expected to break the 10% threshold of all voters in November 2008.
For the first time in U.S. History, Latino voters are expected to surpass or equal the percentage of African-American voters in November 2008.

These two elements just mentioned makes the Latino vote the MAKE or BREAK voting block for the Democratic Party nominee.

As Atty. Sanchez & Atty. Espinosa , two of the Obama's major Latino Coordinator in the the Southwest region has stated-
" If Sen. Obama does not win at least 70% of Latino voters in the General election, he will not be the next President of the United States. If he gets the percentage that Kerry or Gore( 53% & 62%) received in 2004 & 2000 from the Latino voters, it just won't be enough. The lower the caucasian support for Sen. Obama, the higher the Latino margin of victory has to be in order to offset that. Black voters are already maxed out, so the only movement, if any, has to come from the Latinos."

The strategist do not see much more movement from African-American voters since they have already reached ceiling support for Barack Obama in the primary. The remaining support 5%-10% in the African-American community will come from current African-American Sen. Clinton supporters.

The other key element pointed out by Latinos for Obama leaders is the critical question  of how much realistically can Latinos offset the expected drop in white support ?

Several Latino Obama strategist have a similar yet slightly different take on white votes. One strategist explained on  Spanish TV that if Obama does not get a minimum of 39% of white votes in November, the Latino voters will not be able to offset that. We just don't have the Latinos numbers to offset that in 2008.

While I've heard another Obama Latino strategist state on Spanish talk radio that 37% is the absolute rock bottom number for white voters. Obama cannot get less than that if he is to be competitive. The Latino vote cannot counter the white vote if it goes below that.

Either way, the critical question here is this:

Kerry, Gore & Bill Clinton all received 40%-42% of the white vote. This was with the "white reagan democrats" coming back home to the democratic party.

As opposed to the HORRIBLE nightmare of Dukakis getting just 31% of all white voters & winning just 10 states or Mondale just getting less than 25% of all white voters & winning 1 state.

The Billion Dollar question is can, Sen. Barack Obama win or hold at least 37% of all white voters in order to at least have a chance of being competitive ?

The Million Dollar question is can, Sen. Barack Obama win at least 70% of Latino voters in November ? ( Only Bill Clinton has ever done that at 72% ) ( Gore & Kerry were way off )

The $100,000 question is, John McCain is obviously more popular among Latinos than most Republicans. He has always won Arizona Latinos in big numbers. His Approval rating among Latinos inched even higher in 2007 because of his stand on protecting Latinos on immigration.McCain has won as much as 65% of Latino voters.

All McCain needs in November is take at least 40% of Latino voters in November & its GAME OVER. ( Remember, Bush got 44% of all latino votes in 2000 & won )

So if Bush got 44% of Latino votes in 2000( despite massive Kerry spending on Spanish TV,Radio & Direct mail) inspite of the War in Iraq, can a more popular(among Latinos) McCain get at least 40% ?

The other $100,000 question is, Kerry, Gore & Bill Clinton got 84% - 87% of All white registered democrats who voted.  ( just to stay competitive  with the Republicans)

Can Sen. Obama carry 84%-87% of all white registered democrats who will vote in November ? If not, how much less will he get without knocking him out ?

Will white democratic voters turnout in the same numbers as Kerry,Gore & Bill Clinton or will a percentage stay home?

These are real, frank, straight questions that everyone has to ponder & think. People have to take out their emotions & look at reality of voting patterns including the critical factor of RACIAL VOTING.

Lastly, what has been the initial reaction of Latino activists on Radio & TV ? For those that have already spoken out, this pretty much sums the sentiment. Let me paraphrase what one Nevada commentator said which pretty much sums it up.

" It is obvious to the american public that Latinos are the strongest supporters of Sen. Hillary Clinton in this 2008 primary. She is carrying our community by 2 to 1 margins. From the the very beginning, we as Latinos without hesitation, went for Sen. Clinton even at the expense of our Latino brother Bill Richardson. We felt so strongly in supporting her despite the chance at supporting a 1st Latino President.

So what does the Gov. Richarson endorsement do for Latino voters? Particularly for the 70% of who are currently supporting Sen. Clinton ? Not very much. How can he sway Clinton supporters when we actually chose her over him. Its not like we were supporting him as our 1st choice & he is now asking us to change our support. Governor Bill Richardson NEVER owned the support of the Latino community in the first place, so how can he give it away ?

There is only one person who will at least convince a percentage of Latinos to support Obama over McCain. And that's a strong endorsement from no other than Sen. Clinton. But even with that endorsement, hoping for Obama to get 70% of All Latinos in November especially against McCain will be a hell of an goal."

Remember this IMPORTANT FACT about LATINOS/HISPANICS.

It is a Swing Voting Block. It is NEVER shy to vote Republican.
The 4 Top Republican Latino vote getters in history are George W. Bush, John McCain, Arnold Schwarzenegger & Mel Martinez)
In fact, All were successful against Democrats in large part because of Latino crossover.

So for those of you who falsely doubt that Latino democrats will cross party lines to vote Republican, its not a threat. Its reality. History has proven that.

In conclusion, Senator Obama has 3 BIG NUTS to Crack.

1) Can he solidify & unite the Latino community to support him for November ?
( two latest latino surveys, taken both in March, show Clinton's support among Latinos is at about 71%-73%. Note: One survey showed 51% plan to cross partylines in Nov. if Sen. Obama is the nominee. The other survey showed 55% would cross partylines)

2)Can he hold on  and/or minimize the defection of "white reagan democrats to the GOP in November? ( right now, Reagan democrats are solidly behind Sen. Clinton since Super Tuesday. The numbers have continued to increase for Clinton among this group)

We all saw the results of 1984 & 1988 when this large block abandoned the democratic party.

3)Will there be larger than normal white voter turnout among middle america & moderate whites among registered republicans & independents ? ( especially with the memory of the Rev. Wright racial controversy)

All I will say particularly to White & Black Democrats.

We Latinos have a unique perspective as someone who can see both worlds. The perspective of white & black people. Since we are not a part of neither world.

And right now, white progressives & some african-americans are not facing reality when it comes to race.

Whether you or I like it or not, whether its right or wrong, RACE WILL BE A KEY FACTOR in November.

No Speech will change years of learned behavior & private attitudes of most americans when it comes to race.

We are All bias in our own way!

I will support & vote for Senator Obama as the nominee. I am already getting ready to give my strong talking points for why he should be President to the many latinos that I will have to convince.

But in all honesty, I only see two outcomes in November. They are both EXTREMES.

I see a victorious President Barack Obama as  breakthrough American Hero in November  by getting massive Latino, Black support combined with decent white support. It would shock even Republicans & it would be historic celebrations.

Or

It would be Worst Lost Opportunity in Democratic history. Much Worst than the 2000 lost opportunity.
It would be a  down, depressed,shocked democratic party. Due to  massive Electoral college defeats in states like PA,NJ,OH,MO,MA, MI,NM,CT,NH,ME,MN,FL & the entire south.
It would be comparable to Dukakis & Mondale in terms of Electoral college numbers. It would almost surely cost us the Senate control due to massive statewide crossover from White reagan democrats & latinos.

We shall see in November!

I pray that the progressive party elders Kennedy, Pelosi, Richardson, Kerry, Jesse Jackson, Tom Daschle, the liberal white & black community & the Progressive Netroots community leaders like Kos are correct in their assessment.

Either way, I love my party & my country. We cannot afford 4 more years of Republican rule. I am with you 100% Senator Obama if you are the nominee. I will not be the problem. But many of my hermanos & hermanas will be a challenge in November

Another African-American video has just hit the online community. ABC News & CBS also just picked up on this video of Dr. James Manning.

Note: This video is laced with very strong language against Sen. Obama & his African father.

But this time, he goes ballistic on Sen. Barack Obama & the black community who have been attacking Bill & Hillary Clinton.

He also scolds Blacks for not showing any gratitude to all that Bill Clinton has done for the African-American community.

Rev. Manning attacks on Sen. Barack Obama will only intensify this race filled fracas.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=khuu-RhOBDU

This will hit all MSM orgs by tonight's news.

I have a feeling that this is only the start of this Racially charged primary.

Polls are rapidly moving towards Senator Hillary Clinton's direction since the Reverend Wright scandal erupted.

A new poll courtesy of Public Policy Polling (PPP) show Sen. Clinton erasing her earlier deficit against Senator Barack Obama.

PPP pollings have shown consecutive drops in Sen. Obama's support in OH,PA,FL & now NC.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/P PP_Release_031908.pdf

If an Indiana poll in the next few days comes in with similar results, it would confirm a clear trend Rev. Wright's expose has clearly hurt Senator Obama.